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Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

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  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre
  • Essaadi, Essahbi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 351-365

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:351-365

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: East Asia; Monetary union; Business cycle synchronization; Spectral analysis; Time-varying coherence function;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2011. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation," Working Papers 062011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Gilles De Truchis & Benjamin Keddad, 2012. "South East Asian Monetary Integration: New Evidences from Fractional Cointegration of Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers halshs-00793503, HAL.
  3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
  4. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion- Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-062, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Horvath, Denis & Sulikova, Veronika & Gazda, Vladimir & Sinicakova, Marianna, 2013. "The distance-based approach to the quantification of the world convergences and imbalances - comparisons across countries and factors," MPRA Paper 45033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
  9. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers halshs-00861901, HAL.
  10. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  11. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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