Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

Contents:

Author Info

  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre
  • Essaadi, Essahbi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999310001653
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 351-365

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:351-365

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: East Asia; Monetary union; Business cycle synchronization; Spectral analysis; Time-varying coherence function;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Walih Khallouli, 2007. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Working Papers, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure 0725, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  2. Pula, Gabor & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2009. "Has emerging Asia decoupled? An analysis of production and trade linkages using the Asian international input-output table," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0993, European Central Bank.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999. "Borders and business cycles," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2010. "The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area criteria in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 165-170, January.
  5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  8. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables : a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Post-Print halshs-00550460, HAL.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
  11. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
  12. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2008. "Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-101, July.
  13. Haddad, Mona, 2007. "Trade integration in East Asia : the Role of China and production networks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4160, The World Bank.
  14. D. Furceri & G. Karras, 2008. "Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1491-1501.
  15. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  16. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
  17. Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
  18. C. Fred Bergsten, 1997. "Open Regionalism," Working Paper Series, Peterson Institute for International Economics WP97-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  19. Jane T. Haltmaier & Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Ross Knippenberg & Sylvain Leduc & Mario Marazzi & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 904, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
  21. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
  22. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A measure of co-movement for economic variables: theory and empirics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10139, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  23. Mark Crosby, 2003. "Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific," Working Papers 042003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  24. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-370, July.
  25. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  26. Rana, Pradumna B., 2007. "Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 711-725, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Chaker Aloui & Besma Hkiri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Hela Ben Hamida, 2014. "Real growth co-movements among the GCC+2 countries: Evidence from timefrequency analysis," Working Papers 2014-568, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Gilles De Truchis & Benjamin Keddad, 2012. "South East Asian Monetary Integration: New Evidences from Fractional Cointegration of Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers halshs-00793503, HAL.
  3. Horvath, Denis & Sulikova, Veronika & Gazda, Vladimir & Sinicakova, Marianna, 2013. "The distance-based approach to the quantification of the world convergences and imbalances - comparisons across countries and factors," MPRA Paper 45033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  5. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, 02.
  6. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  7. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion- Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-062, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  8. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach," Working Papers halshs-00861901, HAL.
  10. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
  11. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  12. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:351-365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.