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Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?

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  • Lee Yu-Feng L

    ()
    (New Mexico State University)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the synchronization of the intra-East Asian business cycles based on regional bilateral trade statistics. By evaluating three macroeconomic fundamentals: real GDP, industrial production, and unemployment, it is found that tighter intra-East Asian trade may most likely lead to more idiosyncratic business cycles and hence lower correlations of economic activity. When using regional trade as an international openness criterion in the theory of Optimum Currency Area, the finding suggests that for the immediate future, the creation of an East Asian monetary/currency union may not be feasible.

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    File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej.2007.7.3/gej.2007.7.3.1264/gej.2007.7.3.1264.xml?format=INT
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 3 (October)
    Pages: 1-12

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    Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:7:y:2007:i:3:n:6

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    Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

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    Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/gej

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    Cited by:
    1. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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