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Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?

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  • Lee Yu-Feng L

    (New Mexico State University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the synchronization of the intra-East Asian business cycles based on regional bilateral trade statistics. By evaluating three macroeconomic fundamentals: real GDP, industrial production, and unemployment, it is found that tighter intra-East Asian trade may most likely lead to more idiosyncratic business cycles and hence lower correlations of economic activity. When using regional trade as an international openness criterion in the theory of Optimum Currency Area, the finding suggests that for the immediate future, the creation of an East Asian monetary/currency union may not be feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Yu-Feng L, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:7:y:2007:i:3:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1264
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    Cited by:

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Albert Mafusire & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 261-280, June.
    3. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar‐Thy‐Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.

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