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China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

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Author Info
Fidrmuc, Jarko
Batorova, Ivana

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Abstract

We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominates for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OECD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.

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Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Papers with number RP2008/02.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-02

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Keywords: business cycles; synchronisation; trade; FDI; dynamic correlation;

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  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2002. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Co-movements: the Case of Korea with Other Asian Countries," Trade Working Papers 358, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2005. "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Peter B. Kenen, 2000. "Currency Areas, Policy Domains, and the Institutionalization of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0467, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Introduction: Monetary and Economic Integration in the East Asian Region," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(12), pages 1643-1647, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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