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Noisy Information, Interest Rate Shocks and the Great Moderation

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Abstract

In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model where the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and fnd that the less pronounced reaction of the Federal Reserve to output gap uctuations since 1979 can account for half of the reduction in the standard deviation of GDP associated with the Great Moderation. Our simulations are consistent with the empirically documented smaller magnitude and impact of interest rate shocks since the early 1980s.

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File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2010/wp1007.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2010-07.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2010_07

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Keywords: Great Moderation; New Keynesian Model; Noisy Data;

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Cited by:
  1. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2011. "Animal spirits and credit spreads in a model with a cost channel," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48688, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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