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On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states

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Author Info

  • Gerald Carlino
  • Robert DeFina
  • Keith Sill

Abstract

In 1952, the average quarterly volatility of U.S. state employment growth stood at 1.5 percent. By 1995, employment growth volatility came in at just under 0.5 percent. While all states shared in the decline, some states declined much more dramatically than others. We analyze aspects of this decline using new data covering industry employment by state during the postwar period. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/time-series model corrected for spatial dependence indicate that fluctuations in state-specific and aggregate variables have both played an important role in explaining volatility trends. However, state-level differences in responses to aggregate shocks account for less of the postwar fluctuations in employment growth volatility than do state-specific forces.

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File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2004/wp04-21R.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 04-21.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:04-21

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Keywords: Employment (Economic theory);

References

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  1. John R. Kort, 1981. "Regional Economic Instability and Industrial Diversification in the U.S," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(4), pages 596-608.
  2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
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  6. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  7. Attaran, Mohsen, 1986. "Industrial Diversity and Economic Performance in U.S. Areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 44-54, July.
  8. Anselin, Luc, 1990. "Some robust approaches to testing and estimation in spatial econometrics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 141-163, September.
  9. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
  10. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  11. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
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  13. Anselin, Luc & Hudak, Sheri, 1992. "Spatial econometrics in practice : A review of software options," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 509-536, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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