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Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle

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Author Info
Atish R. Ghosh
Holger C. Wolf

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Abstract

We examine whether the aggregate U.S. business cycle is driven mainly by geographical" shocks (affecting all sectors within a state), or by sectoral shocks (affecting the same sector in all" states). We find that, at the level of an individual sector in an individual state growth are driven by the sector, not by the state: textiles in Texas moves more with textiles" elsewhere in the U.S. than with other sectors in Texas. But shocks to sector growth rates exhibit" a lower correlation across sectors compared to the correlation of shocks to state growth rates" across states. As a result, geographical shocks gain greater importance at higher levels of" aggregation. Finally, we find that changes in the volatility of the aggregate U.S. business cycle" reflect, to a roughly comparable degree, both changes in the volatility of state and sector business" cycles, and changes in their correlation across sectors and states.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6180.

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Date of creation: Sep 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6180

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "The correlation of productivity growth across regions and industries in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 437-443, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alan C. Stockman, 1989. "Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries," NBER Working Papers 2313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 107-182. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Russell Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 1990. "Inventories and the Propagation of Sectoral Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lebow, David E., 1993. "The covariability of productivity shocks across industries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 483-510. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stockman, Alan C, 1990. "International Transmission and Real Business Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 134-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-22, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kandil, Magda, 1995. "Cyclical fluctuations across industries of the United States: Evidence and implications," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 17-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Samolyk, Katherine A., 1994. "Banking conditions and regional economic performance evidence of a regional credit channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 259-278, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  15. Norrbin, Stefan C & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1991. "The Importance of Sectoral and Aggregate Shocks in Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 317-35, April.
  16. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages S198-236, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andreas Haufler & Alexander Klemm & Guttorm Schjelderup, 2006. "Globalisation and the Mix of Wage and Profit Taxes," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2005. "On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states," Working Papers 04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andreas Haufler & Alexander Klemm & Guttorm Schjelderup, 2008. "Economic integration and the relationship between profit and wage taxes," Working Papers 0810, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2002. "The cyclical behavior of state employment during the postwar period," Working Papers 02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Diversification and development," Working Papers 03-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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