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One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many) Many Disaggregates

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  • Quah, Danny

Abstract

Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it useful to study their aggregate? Using a model for non-stationary, dynamically evolving distributions, this paper provides evidence that in the United States, regional movements that preserve their aggregate time path nevertheless have important, predictive comovements with aggregate GNP. Such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 873.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:873

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Keywords: Business Cycle; Distribution Dynamics; Economic Fluctuation; Geographical Region; Growth; Large Cross-Section;

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References

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  1. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52, January.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-53, May.
  4. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections," CEP Discussion Papers dp0132, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  7. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
  8. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  11. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Danny Quah, 1996. "Convergence as Distribution Dynamics (with or without Growth)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0317, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  3. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
  4. Guido Fioretti, 2005. "A Model of Primary and Secondary Waves in Investment Cycles," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 357-381, June.
  5. Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2002. "Disaggregate dynamics and economic growth in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 197-219, March.
  6. Kawagoe, Masaaki, 1999. "Regional Dynamics in Japan: A Reexamination of Barro Regressions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-72, March.
  7. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
  8. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2005. "Analysing Growth and Distribution Dynamics - Isolating Divergence Factors," ERSA conference papers ersa05p749, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Bruno, C. & Fuss, C., 1999. "Asymmetries on European labour markets," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1999-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  10. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2136, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. D'Amico, Guglielmo & Di Biase, Giuseppe & Manca, Raimondo, 2012. "Income inequality dynamic measurement of Markov models: Application to some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1598-1602.
  13. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  14. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.

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