One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates
AbstractTypical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it useful to study their aggregate? Using a model for non-stationary, dynamically evolving distributions, this paper provides evidence that in the United States, regional movements that preserve their aggregate time path nevertheless have important, predictive comovements with aggregate GNP. Such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 38 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Other versions of this item:
- Quah, D., 1993. "One Business Cycle and One Trend From(Many) Many Disaggregates," Papers 550, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Quah, Danny, 1994. "One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many) Many Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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