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Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector

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Author Info

  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Herman O. Stekler
  • Wenxiong Yao
  • Peg Young

Abstract

We develop a monthly output index of the U.S. Transportation sector over 1980:1-2002:4 covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. Our total transportation output index matches very well with the annual transportation output figures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The strong cyclical movements in the transportation output appear to be more synchronized with the growth slowdowns rather than full-fledged recessions of the U.S. economy. The index has led the turning points of the six NBER-defined growth cycles over the period with an average lead-time of 6 months at peaks and 5 months at troughs.

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File URL: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/2003/JTS2004.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 03-12.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:03-12

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml

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References

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  1. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Zvi Griliches, 1992. "Output Measurement in the Service Sectors," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril92-1.
  3. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
  4. Carol Corrado & Charles Gilbert & Richard Raddock, 1997. "Industrial production and capacity utilization: historical revision and recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 67-92.
  5. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  6. Holden,Ken & Peel,David A. & Thompson,John L., 1991. "Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521356923, Fall.
  7. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-86, July.
  8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 1992. "Productivity in the Transportation Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 371-427 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely," NBER Working Papers 8430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
  3. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  4. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.

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