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New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle

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  • Roumen Vesselinov

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    Abstract

    The paper presents the creation of a new composite coincident monthly indicator for Bulgaria. The Bry-Boschan method is used to determine the turning points for the Bulgarian business cycle for the 2000-2011 period. A new composite leading indicator is also created and tested. The paper finds that the latest recession for Bulgaria had started in June 2007 and was still continuing by March 2011. The national business cycle was lagging the Euro Area cycle before 2007 and was early after that.

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    File URL: http://www.ijesar.org/docs/volume5_issue2/composite_indicators.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.ijesar.org/volume5_issue2.php
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece in its journal International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR).

    Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (August)
    Pages: 101-111

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    Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:2:p:101-111

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    Related research

    Keywords: business cycle; coincident; leading; indicator;

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    1. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
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