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Economic indicators for the US transportation sector

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  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Yao, Vincent Wenxiong

Abstract

Since the transportation sector plays an important role in business cycle propagation, we develop indicators for this sector to identify its current state, and predict its future. We define the reference cycle, including both business and growth cycles, for this sector over the period from 1979 using both the conventional National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) method and modern time series models. A one-to-one correspondence between cycles in the transportation sector and those in the aggregate economy is found; however, both business and growth cycles of transportation often start earlier and end later than those of the overall economy. We also construct an index of leading indicators for the transportation sector using rigorous statistical procedures, and is found to perform well as a forecasting tool.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
Issue (Month): 10 (December)
Pages: 872-887

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:40:y:2006:i:10:p:872-887

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References

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  1. Peter Temin, 1998. "The Causes of American Business Cycles: An Essay in Economic Historiography," NBER Working Papers 6692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Brad R. Humphreys & Louis J. Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and output inventories," Working Papers 97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Roy Batchelor, 2001. "Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 107-124, January.
  4. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May.
  5. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-86, July.
  6. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, July.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  8. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, July.
  10. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturer's Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra50-1, July.
  11. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
  12. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  14. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
  15. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series 875, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andersson, Fredrik N G & Elger, Thomas, 2007. "Freight Transportation Activity, Business Cycles and Trend Growth," Working Papers 2007:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  2. Krüger, Niclas, 2012. "Estimating traffic demand risk - a multiscale analysis," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:14, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  3. Hultkrantz, Lars & Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos , Panagiotis, 2012. "Risk-adjusted long term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Working Papers 2012:14, Örebro University, School of Business.

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