Estimating traffic demand risk - a multiscale analysis
AbstractThis paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the time-scale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transports show a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transports. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice among public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) in its series Working papers in Transport Economics with number 2012:14.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Web page: http://www.kth.se/abe/om_skolan/organisation/centra/cts
Traffic demand; GDP growth; Wavelet; Risk; Real options; Discount rate;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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- Andersson, Fredrik N G & Elger, Thomas, 2007. "Freight Transportation Activity, Business Cycles and Trend Growth," Working Papers 2007:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Ramanathan, R., 2001. "The long-run behaviour of transport performance in India: a cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 309-320, May.
- Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
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