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The long-run behaviour of transport performance in India: a cointegration approach

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  • Ramanathan, R.
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    Abstract

    The long-run relationships between variables representing transport performance and other macro-economic variables in India are analysed in this paper using the concepts of cointegration and error correction. The results show that passenger-kilometres (PKM) in India are likely to increase faster than gross domestic product (GDP), and much faster than urbanisation. The tonne-kilometres (TKM) are highly correlated to industrial growth, and are likely to increase faster than the index of industrial production. Both the passenger and freight performances are relatively inelastic to price changes. The error correction model (ECM) shows that both passenger and tonne-kilometres adjust to their respective long-run equilibrium at a moderate rate, with about 35% of adjustment in PKM and 40% of adjustment in TKMs occurring in the first year.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 4 (May)
    Pages: 309-320

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:35:y:2001:i:4:p:309-320

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    1. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    4. Eltony, M. N. & Al-Mutairi, N. H., 1995. "Demand for gasoline in Kuwait : An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 249-253, July.
    5. Samimi, Rodney, 1995. "Road transport energy demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 329-339, October.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    7. Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    9. Ramanathan, R. & Parikh, Jyoti K., 1999. "Transport sector in India: an analysis in the context of sustainable development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-46, January.
    10. Guilkey, David K. & Schmidt, Peter, 1989. "Extended tabulations for Dickey-Fuller tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 355-357, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Andersson, Fredrik N G & Elger, Thomas, 2007. "Freight Transportation Activity, Business Cycles and Trend Growth," Working Papers 2007:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Krüger, Niclas, 2012. "Estimating traffic demand risk - a multiscale analysis," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:14, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    4. Hultkrantz, Lars & Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos , Panagiotis, 2012. "Risk-adjusted long term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Working Papers 2012:14, Örebro University, School of Business.

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