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A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain

Author

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  • Arbués, Pelayo
  • Baños, José F.

Abstract

This paper presents an innovative approach where a dynamic time specification derived from a gravity model is used for the first time to analyse the transport of goods by road. This dynamic approach, which has recently been implemented in international goods trade models instead of the traditional static specification, is applied to the case of Spain using panel data comprising the 15 NUTS-3 regions of the Peninsula between 1999 and 2009. Relying on the System General Methods of Moments methodology, we have found significant evidence that the flow of goods by road has a strong persistence effect. We have also found that the quality of road transport infrastructure has a significant impact on the flows of goods. The estimated equation is used to make predictions of traffic flows among regions and to calculate total emissions associated with these trades. According to our findings, we suggest to keep subsidizing the replacement of old vehicles by more energy-efficient ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbués, Pelayo & Baños, José F., 2013. "A dynamic approach to road freight flows modeling in Spain," Efficiency Series Papers 2013/05, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    • Handle: RePEc:oeg:wpaper:2013/05
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    File URL: https://www.unioviedo.es/oeg/ESP/esp_2013_05.pdf
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