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Ethanol demand under the flex-fuel technology regime in Brazil

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  • de Freitas, Luciano Charlita
  • Kaneko, Shinji

Abstract

This paper analyzes the characteristics of ethanol demand in the context of fuel mix diversification in Brazil. Currently, ethanol is the most important gasoline additive and alternative fuel consumed in Brazil and is responsible there for profound changes in the dynamics of fuel consumption. The diffusion of flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil symbolizes a new stage of ethanol expansion and is a central component of the increasing demand for fuel. Accordingly, we evaluate ethanol demand in Brazil following the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles using a cointegration approach and autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests over the period 2003–2010. The evidences confirm that during the last decade, ethanol has strengthened its position as both an independent fuel and a substitute for gasoline. There is also evidence that growth in the Brazilian automobile fleet based on flex-fuel technology is a major driving factor of long-run ethanol demand. Further, the dynamics of gasohol (mandatory blend of gasoline and ethanol) and ethanol prices operate in a symmetric manner over ethanol demand, thereby evidencing the increasing substitutability between these alternative fuels.

Suggested Citation

  • de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Ethanol demand under the flex-fuel technology regime in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1146-1154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:6:p:1146-1154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.03.011
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    3. Pessoa, Joao Paulo & Santos, Roberto Amaral & Chimeli, Ariaster, 2023. "Natural Gas Vehicles: Consequences to Fuel Markets and the Environment," SocArXiv 7tvgy, Center for Open Science.
    4. Nunez, Hector & Onal, Hayri, 2013. "An Economic Analysis of Transportation Fuel Policies in Brazil," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149973, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Santos, Gervásio F., 2013. "Fuel demand in Brazil in a dynamic panel data approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 229-240.
    6. Zaman Sajid & Maria Aparecida Batista da Silva & Syed Nasir Danial, 2021. "Historical Analysis of the Role of Governance Systems in the Sustainable Development of Biofuels in Brazil and the United States of America (USA)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-24, June.
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    8. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
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    10. Rodrigues, Niágara & Losekann, Luciano & Silveira Filho, Getulio, 2018. "Demand of automotive fuels in Brazil: Underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 644-655.
    11. de Barros, Marisa Maia & Szklo, Alexandre, 2015. "Petroleum refining flexibility and cost to address the risk of ethanol supply disruptions: The case of Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 20-31.
    12. Chanthawong, Anuman & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2016. "Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    13. Hector M. Nuñez and Jesús Otero, 2017. "Integration in Gasoline and Ethanol Markets in Brazil over Time and Space under the Flex-fuel Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    14. Brexó, Ramon Peres & Sant’Ana, Anderson S., 2017. "Impact and significance of microbial contamination during fermentation for bioethanol production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 423-434.
    15. Leonardo Chaves Borges Cardoso & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Alexandre Alves Porsse, 2014. "Demanda Por Combustíveis Leves No Brasil: Uma Abordagem Utilizando Painéis Espaciais Dinâmicos," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 194, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Silva, Anderson Luís da & Castañeda-Ayarza, Juan Arturo, 2021. "Macro-environment analysis of the corn ethanol fuel development in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho & Rafael G. O. dos Santos & João Gabriel A. Calmon & Peterson A. Lobato & Marcelo A. Moret & Thiago B. Murari & Hugo Saba, 2022. "Induction of a Consumption Pattern for Ethanol and Gasoline in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-11, July.
    18. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Leonardo Chaves Borges Cardoso & Elena Grace Irwin, 2016. "Biofuels Policies And Fuel Demand Elasticities In Brazil: An Iv Approach," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 181, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2017. "The spatio-temporal dynamics of ethanol/gasoline price ratio in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-12.
    20. Jose Cantos & Robert Dixon, 2014. "Impacts of bioethanol on gasoline prices in the Philippines: an econometric analysis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-13, January.
    21. El Montasser, Ghassen & Gupta, Rangan & Martins, Andre Luis & Wanke, Peter, 2015. "Are there multiple bubbles in the ethanol–gasoline price ratio of Brazil?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 19-23.
    22. Kumar, Satish & Cho, Jae Hyun & Park, Jaedeuk & Moon, Il, 2013. "Advances in diesel–alcohol blends and their effects on the performance and emissions of diesel engines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 46-72.
    23. Cardoso, Leonardo C.B. & Bittencourt, Maurício V.L. & Litt, Wade H. & Irwin, Elena G., 2019. "Biofuels policies and fuel demand elasticities in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-305.
    24. Roberto Amaral-Santos & Ariaster Chimeli & Joao Paulo Pessoa, 2023. "Natural Gas Vehicles: Consequences to Fuel Markets and the Environment," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_07, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ethanol demand; Elasticity; Cointegration; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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