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The global demand for motorized mobility

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  • Schafer, Andreas
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    Abstract

    This paper provides a data set of global and regional passenger traffic volumes between 1960 and 1990 for the four major motorized modes of transport--cars, buses, railways, and aircraft--in eleven world regions. Based on these data, global long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split are projected. The underlying constraints, originally employed in urban traffic planning and never before applied to global scenarios, assume that humans invest fixed budgets of money and time for travel on average. The paper also discusses implications of rising travel demand on world passenger transport energy use, on the global automobile motorization rate, and briefly deals with the long-term implications of unlimited mobility growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 32 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 6 (August)
    Pages: 455-477

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:32:y:1998:i:6:p:455-477

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    Cited by:
    1. Van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet, 2005. "The commuting time paradox," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 437-454, November.
    2. Jos van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld, 2002. "Commuting, Spatial Search and Labour Market Bargaining," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-039/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. van de Coevering, Paul & Schwanen, Tim, 2006. "Re-evaluating the impact of urban form on travel patternsin Europe and North-America," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 229-239, May.
    4. Lyons, Glenn & Urry, John, 2005. "Travel time use in the information age," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 257-276.
    5. François Gusdorf & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2007. "Compact or Spread-Out Cities: Urban Planning, Taxation, and the Vulnerability to Transportation Shocks," Working Papers 2007.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Choo, Sangho, 2003. "Aggregate Relationships between Telecommunications and Travel: Structural Equation Modeling of Time Series Data," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4p78h623, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    8. Jennings, Mark & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. & Schipper, Lee, 2013. "Irish passenger transport: Data refinements, international comparisons, and decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 151-164.
    9. Kopits, Elizabeth & Cropper, Maureen, 2003. "Traffic fatalities and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3035, The World Bank.
    10. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M., 2010. "Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 620-641, October.
    11. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Chen, Cynthia, 2004. "TTB or not TTB, that is the question: a review and analysis of the empirical literature on travel time (and money) budgets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(9-10), pages 643-675.
    12. Stopher, Peter R., 2004. "Reducing road congestion: a reality check," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 117-131, April.
    13. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
    14. Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2008. "Transport policy in Dutch election manifestos: Estimating the environmental impact," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 283-290, September.
    15. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    16. Chen, Cynthia & Mokhtarian, Patricia, 2008. "A Review and Discussion of the Literature on Travel Time and Money Expenditures," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt51d696jh, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Jos van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld, 2002. "Commuting, Spatial Search and Labour Market Bargaining," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-039/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Krüger, Niclas A., 2012. "Estimating traffic demand risk – A multiscale analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1741-1751.
    19. Limanond, Thirayoot & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj & Srikaew, Artit, 2011. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2754-2763, May.
    20. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    21. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L, 2008. "Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6q8518s4, University of California Transportation Center.
    22. Schipper, Youdi, 2004. "Environmental costs in European aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 141-154, April.

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