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The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index

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Author Info
Kajal Lahiri
Wenxiong Yao

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Abstract

A monthly output index for the US Transportation sector over January 1979-June 2003 is reported covering air, rail, water, truck, transit and pipeline activities. Separate indexes for freight and passenger are also constructed. The strong cyclical movements observed in the transportation output appear to be well synchronized with the NBER-defined recessions and growth slowdowns of the US economy. The series reflects the profound impact of 9/11 on the transportation sector, especially on the airlines. By December 2002 it has reached its historical peak. Given the observed relationship of the transportation output with the economy, the recent upward trend in the freight transportation strongly suggests that both the sector and the overall economy have recovered from their latest slump.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (February)
Pages: 149-152
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:3:p:149-152

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
  4. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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