Since 1990, the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has used a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading indicator. Special attention has been paid to the role and significance of IFO data. The structure of the CPB leading indicator is tailored to its use as a supplement to model-based projections, and thus has a unique character in several respects.
The system of the CPB leading indicator is composed of ten separate composite indicators, seven for expenditure categories (‘demand’) and three for the main production sectors (‘supply’). This systems approach has important advantages over the usual structure, in which the basis series are directly linked to a single reference series.
The revised system, which uses 25 different basic series, performs quite well in describing the economic cycle of the GDP, in indicating the upturns and downturns, and in telling the story behind the business cycle.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Papers with number
32.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
Working Paper
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
NBER Working Papers
7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)