IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ltv/wpaper/200803.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Ludmila Fadejeva

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

This paper aims at characterising fluctuations of economic activity that are common for the Baltic States, CEE countries, euro area countries and Russia. The real standardised GDP quarterly growth is chosen as an indicator of economic development of the countries. Three methods are employed: static factor analysis, dynamic factor model and dynamic correlation. Special attention is given to the analysis of Latvian economy. The results of the study show that the Baltic economies are similar in economic development and share a common factor. After 2000, the real standardised GDP growth in the Baltic States became more correlated with the GDP growth of the main euro area countries indicating growing synchronisation of economic development between these country groups. The role of the main final demand components (exports, consumption and investment) in explaining common fluctuations in the real standardised GDP growth in the Baltic States is evaluated by analysing common factors for each component and dynamic correlation between components for each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity," Working Papers 2008/03, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bank.lv/public_files/images/img_lb/izdevumi/english/citas/wp_2008-3_fadejeva-melihovs.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macroeconomics.lv/sites/default/files/wp_2008-3_fadejeva-melihovs.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Kierzenkowski, R. & Lubochinsky, C., 2006. "Are Business and Credit Cycles Converging or Diverging? A comparison of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Euro Area," Working papers 144, Banque de France.
    2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Dr. James Mitchell, 2003. "Reconsidering the Evidence: Are Eurozone Business Cycles Converging?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 210, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Fabien Tripier, 2002. "The Dynamic Correlation Between Growth and Unemployment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-9.
    8. Peter B. Kenen, 1994. "Exchange Rates And The Monetary System," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 259.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    10. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    13. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    14. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    15. Monfort, Alain & Vitale, Giovanni & Rüffer, Rasmus & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2002:i:4:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mojon, Benoît & Agresti, Anna Maria, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scott W. Hegerty, 2019. "Common Baltic-Nordic business cycles: Correlation- versus Markov-switching approaches," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(4), December.
    2. Hegerty Scott William, 2017. "Common Cycles and Baltic-Nordic Economic Integration," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 70-81, August.
    3. Soultanaeva, Albina, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Baltic countries," Umeå Economic Studies 817, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    4. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    2. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    4. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    5. Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    7. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    11. Martínez-Martín, Jaime & Rusticelli, Elena, 2021. "Keeping track of global trade in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 224-236.
    12. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    13. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    14. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    15. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    16. Harm Bandholz, 2005. "New Composite Leading Indicators for Hungary and Poland," ifo Working Paper Series 3, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2006. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 1-54, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    19. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronisation; dynamic factor model; dynamic correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Konstantins Benkovskis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bolgvlv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.