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Identification and analysis of industry cycles

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  • Tan, Hao
  • Mathews, John A.
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    Abstract

    Ever since Schumpeter first identified industry cycles as the characteristic form of capitalist development, with upturns creating opportunities for profit and downturns providing scope for restructuring, the topic has attracted occasional interest by business researchers - but never the sustained interest that the subject warrants. Most studies in cyclical dynamics focus on the macroeconomy, and largely deal with forecasting. This article focuses by contrast on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management. This introductory paper discusses the fundamentals of industry cycle identification, and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights. The study illustrates these approaches with industrial data from the global semiconductor industry. The argument is that the study of cyclical industrial dynamics provides the foundation for wider studies of innovation and technology management.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Business Research.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 454-462

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:63:y:2010:i:5:p:454-462

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres

    Related research

    Keywords: Cyclical industrial dynamics Industry cycles Semiconductor industry Counter-cyclical investment;

    References

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Cycles and the Fast Fourier Transform
      by Clive Jones in Business Forecasting on 2012-10-25 22:26:49
    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bamiatzi, Vassiliki & Cavusgil, Salih Tamer & Jabbour, Liza & Sinkovics, Rudolf R., 2014. "Does business group affiliation help firms achieve superior performance during industrial downturns? An empirical examination," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 195-211.

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