A Composite Leading Indicator of the Inflation Cycle for the Euro Area
AbstractWe evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 24.
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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- J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266.
- NEP-ALL-2004-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2004-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2004-09-30 (Monetary Economics)
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