This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jane M. Binner
Peter Tino
Jonathan Tepper
Richard G. Anderson
Barry Jones
Graham Kendall

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-030.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-030.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-030

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Forecasting ; Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary theory;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Binner, Jane M & Fielding, Antony & Mullineux, A W, 1999. "Divisia Money in a Composite Leading Indicator of Inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bachmeier, Lance & Leelahanon, Sittisak & Li, Qi, 2007. "Money Growth And Inflation In The United States," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 113-127, February. [Downloadable!]
  3. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry Z. Cynamon & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "U.S. Narrow Money for the Twenty-First Century," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 142-152, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Drake, Leigh & Mullineux, Andy & Agung, Juda, 1997. "One Divisia Money for Europe?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 775-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
  6. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2005. "On user costs of risky monetary assets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 35-50, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hulten, Charles R, 1973. "Divisia Index Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1017-25, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994-1999," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-72. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2004. "Thinking about Monetary Policy without Money," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 325-347, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Elger, Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Nilsson, Birger, 2006. "Forecasting with Monetary Aggregates: Recent Evidence for the United States," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 428-446. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Diewert, W E, 1974. "Intertemporal Consumer Theory and the Demand for Durables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 497-516, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Nelson, Edward, 2002. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 687-708, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Travis Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  24. Jones, Barry E. & Dutkowsky, Donald H. & Elger, Thomas, 2005. "Sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 483-508, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Barnett, William A, 1982. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 687-710, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Cannot find something on IDEAS? Encourage the publisher to index it! Instructions.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.