Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries
AbstractIn this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies in its series DRUID Working Papers with number 07-07.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.druid.dk/
Industry cycle; business cycle; technology cycle; business dynamics; VAR model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
- L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2007-07-27 (Business Economics)
- NEP-IND-2007-07-27 (Industrial Organization)
- NEP-RMG-2007-07-27 (Risk Management)
- NEP-TID-2007-07-27 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
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