Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries
AbstractIn this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies in its series DRUID Working Papers with number 07-07.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.druid.dk/
Industry cycle; business cycle; technology cycle; business dynamics; VAR model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
- L63 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Microelectronics; Computers; Communications Equipment
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2007-07-27 (Business Economics)
- NEP-IND-2007-07-27 (Industrial Organization)
- NEP-RMG-2007-07-27 (Risk Management)
- NEP-TID-2007-07-27 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allan Layton, 1997. "A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 861-868.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994.
"Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canova, Fabio, 1999.
"Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
- Fabio Canova, 1994. "Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?," Economics Working Papers 113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
- Furman, Jeffrey L. & Porter, Michael E. & Stern, Scott, 2002. "The determinants of national innovative capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 899-933, August.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-71, September.
- Geroski, Paul A & Machin, Stephen & Walters, Christopher F, 1997. "Corporate Growth and Profitability," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 171-89, June.
- Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006.
"Shifting trends in semiconductor prices and the pace of technological progress,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008. "Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
- Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, octubre-d.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1982.
"Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change,"
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006.
"Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997.
"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "FORTRAN code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 3, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Ivailo Izvorski, . "MATLAB code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 1, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2006. "HP-Filter DLL executable," QM&RBC Codes 167, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2004. "HP-filter for Java," QM&RBC Codes 168, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Kurt Annen, 2004. "Matlab functions for HP-filter," QM&RBC Codes 166, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2006. "HP-Filter Excel Add-In," QM&RBC Codes 165, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Morten Ravn, . "GAUSS program for Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 101, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Ken Matheny & Simon van Norden & Robert Vigfusson, 1989. "GAUSS code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 2, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles, revised Apr 1995.
- Christian Zimmermann, 2005. "HP-Filter (web interface)," QM&RBC Codes 97, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Morten Ravn, . "Alternate GAUSS program for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," QM&RBC Codes 102, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Christian Zimmermann, 2005. "HP-Filter code (Perl)," QM&RBC Codes 98, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
- Petersen, Bruce & Strongin, Steven, 1996. "Why Are Some Industries More Cyclical Than Others?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-98, April.
- J.R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2001. "Business Cycle and Service Industries: General Trends and the Spanish Case," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 103-122, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Constance E. Helfat & Marvin B. Lieberman, 2002. "The birth of capabilities: market entry and the importance of pre-history," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 725-760, August.
- Jane M. Binner & Stuart I. Wattam, 2003. "A new composite leading indicator of inflation for the UK: a Kalman filter approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 242-264.
- J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005.
"A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266.
- Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Andrew Mullineux, 2004. "A Composite Leading Indicator of the Inflation Cycle for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 24, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, April.
- Liu, Wen-Hsien, 2005. "Determinants of the semiconductor industry cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 853-866, October.
- Baldwin, John R & Gorecki, Paul K, 1994. "Concentration and Mobility Statistics in Canada's Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 93-103, March.
- Hu, Mei-Chih & Mathews, John A., 2005. "National innovative capacity in East Asia," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1322-1349, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keld Laursen).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.