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A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

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Author Info
J. M. Binner
R. K. Bissoondeeal
A. W. Mullineux
Abstract

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 11 (June)
Pages: 1257-1266
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:11:p:1257-1266

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Binner, Jane M & Fielding, Antony & Mullineux, A W, 1999. "Divisia Money in a Composite Leading Indicator of Inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-31, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. S Barrios & M Brülhart & R J R Elliott & M Sensier, 2002. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 03, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  4. Serletis, Apostolos & Atkins, Frank, 1988. "The Low-Frequency Relationship between Money, Prices and Income," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 877-87, July.
  5. Artis, Michael J, 1994. "Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Thomas Elger & Jane M. Binner, 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  8. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jane M. Binner & Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia M. Gazely & Andrew W. Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Apostolos Serletis & David Krause, 1996. "Nominal stylized facts of U. S. business cycles," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 49-54. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  12. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Livio Stracca, 2001. "Does liquidity matter? Properties of the synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 079, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leong, Choi-Meng & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Evan, Lau, 2008. "Testing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Malaysia Using Alternative Monetary Aggregation," MPRA Paper 10568, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Working Papers 2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
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