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A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011

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  • Travis Berge

    ()

  • Òscar Jordà

    ()

Abstract

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others—this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spanish Economic Association in its journal SERIEs.

Volume (Year): 4 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-34

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Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:4:y:2013:i:1:p:1-34

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Postal: Universidad del País Vasco; DFAE II; Avenida Lehendakari Aguirre, 83; 48015 Bilbao; Spain
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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13209
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Related research

Keywords: Business cycle; Correct classification frontier; Area under the curve; C14; C82; E32; E65;

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References

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  18. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding," Research Working Paper RWP 11-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Cited by:
  1. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.

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