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Travis John Berge

Personal Details

First Name:Travis
Middle Name:John
Last Name:Berge
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pbe546
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
Terminal Degree:2011 Economics Department; University of California-Davis (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
RePEc:edi:frbgvus (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters

Working papers

  1. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Berge, T. & De Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2041, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Travis J. Berge, 2020. "Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-012r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 14 Apr 2021.
  4. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Travis J. Berge & Nitish R. Sinha & Michael Smolyansky, 2016. "Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?," FEDS Notes 2016-08-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Travis J. Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Oscar Jorda & Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 216, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  14. Oscar Jorda & Travis Berge, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 308, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

Articles

  1. Travis J. Berge, 2023. "Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
  2. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  3. Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019. "Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
  4. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
  5. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
  6. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "The global impact of U.S. monetary policy," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, March.
  7. Travis J. Berge, 2014. "Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 713-735, August.
  8. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
  9. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
  10. Travis J. Berge, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q III).
  11. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
  12. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
  13. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
  14. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

Chapters

  1. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 15 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (10) 2011-12-19 2012-02-01 2013-08-05 2017-04-30 2019-02-11 2019-04-01 2020-04-27 2020-05-11 2020-06-29 2021-06-28. Author is listed
  2. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (9) 2010-10-30 2011-12-19 2012-02-01 2012-02-01 2013-08-05 2016-09-04 2017-04-30 2019-02-11 2020-04-27. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (4) 2010-10-30 2012-02-01 2017-04-30 2019-04-01
  4. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic and Financial History (3) 2011-12-19 2012-02-01 2023-08-28
  5. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (3) 2010-10-30 2017-04-30 2019-04-01
  6. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (3) 2020-04-27 2020-05-11 2021-06-28
  7. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (2) 2012-11-17 2013-08-05
  8. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (2) 2020-04-27 2021-06-28
  9. NEP-SEA: South East Asia (2) 2020-06-29 2023-08-28
  10. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (1) 2010-10-30
  11. NEP-GEN: Gender (1) 2020-05-11
  12. NEP-IFN: International Finance (1) 2010-10-30
  13. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (1) 2012-11-17

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