A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding
AbstractThis paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER's own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 11-13.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 1020, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008.
"Understanding the evolution of world business cycles,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
- Travis Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 918, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003.
"How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?,"
IMF Working Papers
03/27, International Monetary Fund.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
- Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999.
"International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
- AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ambler, S. & Cardia, E. & Zimmermann, C., 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1240-61, December.
- Stock, James H., 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Scholarly Articles 3425950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Klaus Nordhausen, 2009. "The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition by Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, Jerome Friedman," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 77(3), pages 482-482, December.
- Hsieh Fushing & Chen Shu-Chun & Pollard Katherine, 2009. "A Nearly Exhaustive Search for CpG Islands on Whole Chromosomes," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013.
"A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011,"
Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
- Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lu Dayrit).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.