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A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)

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  • Martínez-García, Enrique
  • Grossman, Valerie
  • Mack, Adrienne

Abstract

We propose a novel chronology of global business cycles based on industrial production data for a sample of 85 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until 2012 and the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We assess the methodology with statistical tools of signal detection theory and against existing chronologies of country-specific turning points. Finally, we conclude by introducing and evaluating a logit model of the probability of a global downturn occurring up to 12 months ahead. This model uses the macro and financial indicators tracked by the Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (see Grossman et al., 2014) to offer advanced warning of upcoming turning points of the global cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:170-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.09.003
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    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
    4. M. Ayhan Kose & Naotaka Sugawara & Marco E. Terrones, 2020. "Global Recessions," Working Papers 162, Peruvian Economic Association.
    5. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    6. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Camacho, Maximo & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 617-625.
    8. Algieri, Bernardina & Iania, Leonardo & Leccadito, Arturo & Meloni, Giulia, 2023. "Message in a Bottle: Forecasting wine prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    9. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
    10. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    11. Finn E. Kydland & Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response," Globalization Institute Working Papers 384, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2018. "Measuring The World Natural Rate Of Interest," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 530-544, January.
    13. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
    14. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global business cycles; Turning points; Bry–Boschan algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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