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Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

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  • João Victor Issler

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  • Hilton Hostalacio Notini

    ()

  • Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues

    ()

Abstract

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature. Keywords: Coincident and Leading Indicators, Business Cycles, Common Features, Latent Factor Analysis JEL codes: C32, E32

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k4841782xnn
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2012 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 43-65

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k4841782xnn

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Joao Victor Issler & Hilton Notini & Claudia Rodrigues & Ana Flávia Soares, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(1), pages 67-96, April.
  3. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
  4. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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