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Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy

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  • Issler, João Victor
  • Notini, Hilton Hostalacio
  • Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura

Abstract

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstructioneffort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a newcoincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and fromit, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TheConference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The thirdis the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycleliterature.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 730.

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Date of creation: 15 Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:730

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  1. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The Missing Link: Using the NBER Recession Indicator to Construct Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 445, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), pages 75-106, January.
  6. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
  8. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  9. Evans, Charles L., 2005. "Comment on "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance" by Tor Jacobson, Jesper Linde, and Kasper Roszbach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 433-434, April.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  19. Paulo Picchetti & Celso Toledo, 2002. "Estimating and Interpreting a Common Stochastic Component for the Brazilian Industrial Production Index," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), pages 107-120, January.
  20. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
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  23. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  24. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance," Working Paper Series 184, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  25. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
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  29. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Joao Victor Issler & Hilton Notini & Claudia Rodrigues & Ana Flávia Soares, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(1), pages 67-96, April.
  2. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
  3. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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