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Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

This paper introduces new nonparametric statistical methods to evaluate zero-cost investment strategies. We focus on directional trading strategies, risk-adjusted returns, and the investor’s decisions under uncertainty as the core of our analysis. By relying on classification tools with a long tradition in the sciences and biostatistics, we can provide a tighter connection between model-based risk characteristics and the no-arbitrage conditions for market efficiency. Moreover, we extend the methods to multicategorical settings, such as when the investor can sometimes take a neutral position. A variety of inferential procedures are provided, many of which are illustrated with applications to excess equity returns and to currency carry trades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17150.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17150

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  1. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  2. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
  3. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  4. Elliott, Graham & Lieli, Robert P., 2013. "Predicting binary outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 15-26.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
  6. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter G. Hall & Rob J. Hyndman & Yanan Fan, 2003. "Non Parametric Confidence Intervals for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics 12/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  9. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gerko, Alexander, 2005. "A Trading Approach to Testing for Predictability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 455-461, October.
  10. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
  11. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Testing Parametric Conditional Distributions of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 531-549, August.
  12. Bai, Jushan, 1991. "Weak convergence of the sequential empirical processes of residuals in ARMA models," MPRA Paper 32915, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jul 1993.
  13. Eiji Fujii & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 7880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jorda, Oscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2013. "Sovereigns versus banks: credit, crises, and consequences," Working Paper Series 2013-37, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Jordà, Òscar, 2014. "Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 729-740.
  4. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
  5. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Karolin Kirschenmann & Tuomas Malinen & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "The risk of financial crises: Is it in real or financial factors?," Working Papers 336, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  7. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  8. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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