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A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011

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  • Travis J. Berge
  • Òscar Jordà

Abstract

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others —this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 11-14.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp11-14

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Cited by:
  1. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.

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