New composite indexes presented in this article could prove useful in analyzing and forecasting the Mexican economy. Keith Phillips, Lucinda Vargas, and Victor Zarnowitz present composite indexes of leading and coincident indexes for Mexico. In constructing the indexes, the economists use an approach similar to that developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research to create the composite indexes of U.S. economic activity. The authors classify peaks and troughs in the Mexican business cycle since 1980. Using these business cycle turning points, the authors determine which indicators consistently turned down prior to recessions and turned up prior to expansions. Eight of the best performing indicators are combined to create a composite index of leading economic indicators.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: