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Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

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  • Danny Quah
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    Abstract

    This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state- regardless of which it happens to be- contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

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    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/DP0275.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0275.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0275

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    Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

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    1. Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
    3. Danny Quah, 1988. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Working papers 498, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1993. "A Dynamic Index Model for Large Cross Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 285-310 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 2013. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2013-12, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    6. Lillard, Lee A & Willis, Robert J, 1978. "Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 985-1012, September.
    7. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    8. Lach, Saul & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregated Price Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 349-89, April.
    9. Quah, Danny T, 1996. " Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
    10. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
    11. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    12. Quah, Danny, 1994. "One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 605-614, April.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1981. "Interpreting Economic Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 213-48, April.
    14. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    17. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
    18. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
    19. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    20. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    23. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    24. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
    25. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
    26. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    27. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
    28. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Distortions in Cross-Sectional Convergence Analysis when the Aggregate Business Cycle is Incomplete," Working Papers 2011_07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    4. George Hammond, 2004. "Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence: A spatial Markov chain approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 543-563, 07.
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2012. "Un Indicatore per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia (Nuova versione)," Quaderni di Dipartimento, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods 158, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    6. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    7. Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    8. Engwerda, J. & Boldea, O. & Michalak, T. & Plasmans, J. & Salmah,, 2012. "A simulation study of an ASEAN monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1870-1890.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kruger, Jens J., 2005. "Structural change in U.S. manufacturing: Stationarity and intra-distributional changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 387-392, June.
    11. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2010. "Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia," Quaderni di Dipartimento, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods 130, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    12. Iván Arribas & Francisco Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "The dynamics of international trade integration: 1967–2004," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 19-41, February.
    13. Temel, Tugrul, 2011. "Disaggregate fluctuations in the US farm output: Testing for convergence," MPRA Paper 31915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sergio Rey, 2014. "Rank-based Markov chains for regional income distribution dynamics," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 115-137, April.

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