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Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective

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  • Aumann, Bernd
  • Scheufele, Rolf

Abstract

This paper assesses whether the economy of East Germany is catching up with the West German region in terms of welfare. While the primary measure for convergence and catching up is per capita output, we also look at other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, wage rates, and production levels in the manufacturing sector. In contrast to existing studies of convergence between regions of reunified Germany, our approach is purely based upon the time series dimension and is thus directly focused on the catching up process in East Germany as a region. Our testing setup includes standard ADF unit root tests as well as unit root tests that endogenously allow for a break in the deterministic component of the process. In our analysis, we find evidence of catching up for East Germany for most of the indicators. However, convergence speed is slow, and thus it can be expected that the catching up process will take further decades until the regional gap is closed.

Suggested Citation

  • Aumann, Bernd & Scheufele, Rolf, 2009. "Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-14-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Scharr, 2009. "Eastern reconstruction 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: goals and tasks for the coming years," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(18), pages 43-48, September.
    2. Bönisch, Peter & Schneider, Lutz, 2010. "Why are East Germans not More Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of Social Ties on Regional Migration," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Jan Kluge & Michael Weber, 2015. "Decomposing the German East-West wage gap," ifo Working Paper Series 205, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Peter Mihalyi, 2012. "The Causes of Slow Growth in Hungary during the Post-Communist Transformation Period," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1216, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Jan Kluge & Michael Weber, 2018. "Decomposing the German East–West wage gap," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(1), pages 91-125, January.
    6. Wolfgang Nagl, 2014. "Lohnrisiko und Altersarmut im Sozialstaat," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 54.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    East Germany; Catching up; Convergence; Unit root tests; Ostdeutschland; Aufholprozess; Konvergenz; Einheitswurzeltests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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