The Decline in Income Growth Volatility in the United States: Evidence from Regional Data

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The Decline in Income Growth Volatility in the United States: Evidence from Regional Data

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Heather Anderson ()
Farshid Vahid ()

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Abstract

We use US regional and state data to determine which regions have contributed most to the apparent decline in income growth volatility in the United States. We study changes in the variance of income growth in each region, changes in the covariance of growth between regions and changes in regional income growth shares. We establish that there has been a significant decline in the income growth volatility in thirty eight US states, and it is this, rather than changes in income shares, that is mostly responsible for the decline in the aggregate growth volatility. Further, we find that the twelve states that show no significant decline in their income growth volatility, are states with policies that make them unattractive to new businesses. We suggest that state level industrial policy may be a good, albeit partial, explanation for the decline in income growth volatility of the United States.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 21/03.

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Length: 20 Pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2003-21

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-11-30 (All new papers)
NEP-MAC-2003-11-30 (Macroeconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall & Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006. "A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 131, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
- Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2009. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 09-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]

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