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Inventories and the business cycle: an equilibrium analysis of (S,s) policies

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Author Info
Aubhik Khan
Julia K. Thomas

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Abstract

The authors develop an equilibrium business cycle model in which final goods producers pursue generalized (S,s) inventory policies with respect to intermediate goods, a consequence of nonconvex factor adjustment costs. Calibrating their model to reproduce the average inventory-to-sales ratio in postwar U.S. data, the authors find that it explains half of the cyclical variability of inventory investment. Moreover, inventory accumulation is strongly procyclical, and production is more volatile than sales, as in the data. The comovement between inventory investment and final sales is often interpreted as evidence that inventories amplify aggregate fluctuations. However, the authors' model economy exhibits a business cycle similar to that of a comparable benchmark without inventories.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 02-20.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:02-20

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Keywords: Inventories ; Business cycles;

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  2. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1997. "Inventories and the business cycle: an overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 11-22. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:2:p:387-422 is not listed on IDEAS
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  5. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 443-520. [Downloadable!]
  7. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2000. "Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: do nonlinearities matter?," Working Papers 00-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  33. Caplin, Andrew S, 1985. "The Variability of Aggregate Demand with (S, s) Inventory Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1395-1409, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George Alessandria & Joseph Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2008. "Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations," Working Paper Series WP-08-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2009. "Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models," Working Papers 09-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yi Wen, 2008. "Inventories, liquidity, and the macroeconomy," Working Papers 2008-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2009. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," Working Papers 09-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. George Alessandria & Joe Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Lumpy Trade and Large Devaluations," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_4, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2005. "Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0511004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Investment Options and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 658, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Martin Menner, 2005. "A Search-Theoretic Monetary Business Cycle Model With Capital Formation," Economics Working Papers we056634, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yi Wen, 2009. "Input and output inventory dynamics," Working Papers 2008-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Modeling inventories over the business cycle," Working Papers 04-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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