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Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics

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Aubhik Khan
Julia Thomas

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Abstract

We study a model of lumpy investment wherein establishments face persistent shocks to common and plant-specific productivity, and nonconvex adjustment costs lead them to pursue generalized (S,s) investment rules. We allow persistent heterogeneity in both capital and total factor productivity alongside low-level investments exempt from adjustment costs to develop the first model consistent with available evidence on establishment-level investment rates. Examining the implications of lumpy investment for aggregate dynamics in this setting, we find that they remain substantial when factor supply considerations are ignored, but are quantitatively irrelevant in general equilibrium. The substantial implications of general equilibrium extend beyond the dynamics of aggregate series. While the presence of idiosyncratic shocks makes the time-averaged distribution of plant-level investment rates largely invariant to market-clearing movements in real wages and interest rates, we show that the dynamics of plants' investments differ sharply in their presence. Thus, model-based estimations of capital adjustment costs involving panel data may be quite sensitive to the assumption about equilibrium. Our analysis also offers new insights about how nonconvex adjustment costs influence investment at the plant. When establishments face idiosyncratic productivity shocks consistent with existing estimates, we find that nonconvex costs do not cause lumpy investments, but act to eliminate them.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12845.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12845

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fang Yao, 2008. "Lumpy Labor Adjustment as a Propagation Mechanism of Business Cycles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher L. House, 2008. "Fixed Costs and Long-Lived Investments," NBER Working Papers 14402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ruediger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2008. "Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1566R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 08 Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francisco Covas & Shigeru Fujita, 2007. "Private risk premium and aggregate uncertainty in the model of uninsurable investment risk," Working Papers 07-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joao Miguel Ejarque & Oivind Anti Nilsen, 2008. "Identifying Adjustment Costs of Net and Gross Employment Changes," Economics Discussion Papers 660, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ruediger Bachmann & Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2006. "Lumpy Investment in Dynamic General Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1566, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  9. Francois Gourio, 2007. "Disasters and Recoveries: A Note on the Barro-Rietz Explanation of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-007, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephan Fahr & Fang Yao, 2009. "When does Lumpy Factor Adjustment Matter for Aggregate Dynamics?," Working Paper Series 1016, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2005. "Is Lumpy Investment really Irrelevant for the Business Cycle?," Economics Working Papers 869, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei, 2009. "Does Lumy Investment Matter for Business Cycles?," MPRA Paper 14977, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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