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Microeconomic inventory adjustment: evidence from U.S. firm-level data

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Author Info
Jonathan McCarthy
Egon Zakrajsek

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Abstract

We examine inventory adjustment in the U.S. manufacturing sector using quarterly firm-level data over the period 1978-97. Our evidence indicates that the inventory investment process is nonlinear and asymmetric, results consistent with a nonconvex adjustment cost structure. The inventory adjustment process differs over the business cycle: for a given level of excess inventories, firms disinvest more in recessions than they do in expansions. The inventory adjustment process has changed little between the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting that recent advances in inventory control have had little effect on adjustment costs. Nevertheless, the optimal inventory-sales ratio in the durable goods sector has declined significantly during our sample period.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2000-24.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-24

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Keywords: Inventories Business cycles

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hsiao, C., 1992. "Random Coefficients Models," Papers 9212, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1993. "Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 359-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26. [Downloadable!]
  5. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Chang, Young-Jae, 1994. "Incomplete panels : A comparative study of alternative estimators for the unbalanced one-way error component regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 67-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kashyap, Anil K & Lamont, Owen A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Valerie A. Ramey, 1992. "Output Fluctuations at the Plant Level," NBER Working Papers 4105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 1998. "Trade inventories," Staff Reports 53, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 896, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. George J. Hall, 1997. "Non-Convex Costs and Capital Utilization: A Study of Production Scheduling at Automobile Assembly Plants," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1169, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-34, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Marcelo Veracierto, 1998. "Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Caplin, Andrew S, 1985. "The Variability of Aggregate Demand with (S, s) Inventory Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1395-1409, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Aubhik Khan & Julia Thomas, 2003. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of (S,s) Policies," NBER Working Papers 10078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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