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UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Haldane, Andrew
Quah, Danny

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Abstract

This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy - how policy-maker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s - rather than, more traditionally, as interaction between exogenous demand and supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policy-makers' beliefs have changed helps explain some features of the evolving UK Phillips curve. We suggest that correlations suggesting an extreme favourable unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly acknowledging that no tradeoff exists.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2292.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2292

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Related research
Keywords: Beliefs Inflation Natural Rate Hypothesis Stability

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessandra Iacobucci, 2003. "Spectral Analysis for Economic Time Series," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard Mash, 2000. "The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 015, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luca Benati, . "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. JUNCAL CUñNADO & FERNANDO PÉREZ DE GRACIA, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Anders Warne & Anders Vredin, 2006. "Unemployment and Inflation Regimes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1280-1280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Juncal Cuñado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, . "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, . "Monetary policy and stagflation in the UK," Bank of England working papers 155, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Singapore's Unique Monetary Policy: How Does it Work?," IMF Working Papers 04/10, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alessandra Iacobucci & Alain Noullez, 2004. "A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?," Staff General Research Papers 12684, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51. [Downloadable!]
  13. Luca Benati, . "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Jerry Coakley & Ana-María Fuertes & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Evaluating the Persistence and Structuralist Theories of Unemployment from a Nonlinear Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(3), pages 1078-1078. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, . "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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