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Business Cycle Volatility in Germany

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Author Info
Claudia M. Buch
Joerg Doepke
Christian Pierdzioch

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Abstract

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely 'good luck'. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2004.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 451-479
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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:451-479

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 65-119. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  8. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alexandre Debs, 2001. "Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada," Working Papers 01-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Choi, Seungmook & Kim, Benjamin J. C., 1991. "Monetary policy regime changes and the risk premium in the foreign exchange markets : A GARCH application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 447-452, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mardi Dungey, 2005. "Discussion of 'Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2004. "Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 433, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Liesenfeld, Roman & Hogrefe, Jens & Aßmann, Christian, 2005. "The Decline in German Output Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis," Economics Working Papers 2006,02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of the Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Claudia M. Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2008. "Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Olaf Posch, 2006. "Explaining Output Volatility: the Case of Taxation," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20608, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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