Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
AbstractStylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely 'good luck'. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2004.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002.
"Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes,"
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
- Nathan S. Balke & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Understanding the price puzzle," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 15-26.
- Alexandre Debs, 2001. "Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada," Working Papers 01-9, Bank of Canada.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999.
"Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
- Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-52, Special I.
- Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003.
"Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline,"
New Zealand Economic Papers,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
- Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
- Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004.
"Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, August.
- Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2002. "Recent U.S. macroeconomic stability: good policies, good practices or good luck?," International Finance Discussion Papers 730, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Choi, Seungmook & Kim, Benjamin J. C., 1991. "Monetary policy regime changes and the risk premium in the foreign exchange markets : A GARCH application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 447-452, December.
- John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1998.
"Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
255, Stockholm School of Economics.
- U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- James, John A, 1993. "Changes in Economic Instability in 19th-Century America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 710-31, September.
- Klaus Weyerstrass & Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler & Atilim Seymen, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ‘Euro Effect’," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 427-446, July.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2004.
"Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
433, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2445-2457.
- Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012.
"On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
- Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009.
"The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis,"
Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
- Liesenfeld, Roman & Hogrefe, Jens & Aßmann, Christian, 2005. "The Decline in German Output Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis," Economics Working Papers 2006,02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo Group Munich.
- Claudia Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2013.
"Regional origins of employment volatility: evidence from German states,"
Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Claudia M. Buch & Martin Schlotter, 2008. "Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 2296, CESifo Group Munich.
- Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Bönke, Timm & Schröder, Carsten & Schulte, Katharina, 2008.
"Incomes and inequality in the long run: the case of German elderly,"
Economics Working Papers
2008,06, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Timm Bönke & Carsten Schröder & Katharina Schulte, 2010. "Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 487-510, November.
- Bönke, Timm & Schröder, Carsten & Schulte, Katharina, 2008. "Incomes and inequality in the long run: the case of German elderly," Discussion Papers 2008/4, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of the Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 70, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.