The Decline in German Output Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis
AbstractEmpirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically depends on the specification of the conditional mean we assume for our volatility analysis different time series models for GDP growth. We find across all specifications evidence for an output stabilization around 1993, after the downturn following the boom associated with the German reunification. However, the different GDP models lead to alternative characterizations of this stabilization : In a linear AR model it shows up as smaller shocks hitting the economy, while regime switching models reveal as further sources for a stabilization, a narrowing gap between growth rates during booms and recessions or flatter trajectories characterizing the GDP growth rates. Furthermore, it appears that the reunification interrupted an output stabilization emerging already around 1987. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2006,02.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
business cycle models; Gibbs sampling; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; regime switching; structural breaks;
Other versions of this item:
- Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Roman Liesenfeld, 2009. "The decline in German output volatility: a Bayesian analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 653-679, December.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-09-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2006-09-16 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2006-09-16 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2006-09-16 (Macroeconomics)
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