Declining output volatility in Germany: impulses, propagation, and the role of monetary policy
AbstractThe decline in output volatility in Germany is analysed. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of the growth process. This is in contrast to the US results, where a break in the variance seems to dominate the decline in persistence. A change in the conduct of monetary policy (the establishment of another monetary policy regime) could be part of an explanation for the change in propagation. Stochastic simulations with a New Keynesian DSGE model support the hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2004. "Declining Output Volatility in Germany: Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 433, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
- L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
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