Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility
AbstractWe test whether there has been a "Great Moderation" of output volatility at the firm level. The multifactor residual model proposed by Pesaran (2006) is used to isolate the idiosyncratic component of firms' sales growth from macroeconomic developments. This methodology is applied to a balanced panel of about 1,200 German firms covering a 35-year period (1971-2005). Our research has three main findings. First, unconditional firm-level volatility and aggregate output volatility have seen similar downward trends. Second, conditional, idiosyncratic firm-level volatility does not exhibit a downward trend. Third, there is a positive link between growth and volatility at the firm level.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2324, CESifo Group Munich.
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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