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Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility

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  • Buch Claudia M

    ()
    (University of Tuebingen)

  • Doepke Joerg

    ()
    (University of Applied Sciences Merseburg)

  • Stahn Kerstin

    ()
    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

We test whether there has been a "Great Moderation" of output volatility at the firm level. The multifactor residual model proposed by Pesaran (2006) is used to isolate the idiosyncratic component of firms' sales growth from macroeconomic developments. This methodology is applied to a balanced panel of about 1,200 German firms covering a 35-year period (1971-2005). Our research has three main findings. First, unconditional firm-level volatility and aggregate output volatility have seen similar downward trends. Second, conditional, idiosyncratic firm-level volatility does not exhibit a downward trend. Third, there is a positive link between growth and volatility at the firm level.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 1-27

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:20

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  1. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
  2. Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2007. "Rules versus Discretion in Loan Rate Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 2091, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Diego Comin & Sunil Mulani, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 374-383, May.
  4. Stephen Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded Versus Privately Held Firms," Working Papers 06-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  5. Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-65, May.
  6. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Ang, James S & Peterson, David R, 1985. " Return, Risk, and Yield: Evidence from Ex Ante Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 537-48, June.
  9. Strotmann, Harald & Döpke, Jörg & Buch, Claudia M., 2006. "Does trade openness increase firm-level volatility?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Weber, Sebastian & Döpke, Jörg, 2006. "The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-52, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
  2. Gonzague Vannoorenberghe & Zheng Wang & Zhihong Yu, 2014. "Volatility and Diversification of Exports: Firm-Level Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 4916, CESifo Group Munich.

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