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A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level

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Author Info
Diego Comin
Sunil Mulani

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Abstract

This paper presents an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations and (ii) general innovations that can be freely adopted by many firms. Firm-level volatility is affected primarily by the Schumpeterian dynamics associated with the development of R&D innovations. On the other hand, the variance of aggregate productivity growth is determined mainly by the arrival rate of general innovations. Ceteris paribus, the share of resources spent on development of general innovations increases with the stability of the market share of the industry leader. As market shares become less persistent, the model predicts an endogenous shift in the allocation of resources from the development of general innovations to the development of R&D innovations. This results in an increase in R&D, an increase in firm-level volatility, and a decline in aggregate volatility. The effect on productivity growth is ambiguous. On the empirical side, this paper documents an upward trend in the instability of market shares. It shows that firm volatility is positively associated with R&D spending, and that R&D is negatively associated with the correlation of growth between sectors which leads to a decline in aggregate volatility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11503.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11503

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
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    Other versions:
  3. Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992. "General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth"," Papers 16-92, Tel Aviv.
    Other versions:
  4. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hellwig, Martin & Irmen, Andreas, 2001. "Endogenous Technical Change in a Competitive Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Diego Comin, 2004. "R&D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 10625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
  10. Zvi Griliches, 1986. "Productivity, R&d, and Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 1547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Daniel J. Wilson, 2005. "Beggar thy neighbor? the in-state vs. out-of-state impact of state R&D tax credits," Working Paper Series 2005-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dinopoulos, Elias & Thompson, Peter, 1998. " Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 313-35, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Thesmar, David & Thoenig, Mathias, 2004. "Financial Market Development and the Rise in Firm Level Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 4761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Miles Parker, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the UK," Discussion Papers 16, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Mamuneas, Theofanis P. & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1996. "Public R&D policies and cost behavior of the US manufacturing industries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 57-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. " Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Productivity, R&D, and the Basic Research at the Firm Level in the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 141-54, March.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Miles Parker, 2006. "Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm-Level Volatility in the UK," Discussion Papers 16, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alain Gabler & Omar Licandro, 2007. "Endogenous Growth through Selection and Imitation," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/26, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Diego Comin & Erica L. Groshen & Bess Rubin, 2006. "Turbulent firms, turbulent wages?," Staff Reports 238, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee & Michael Sorell & Feng Zhu, 2007. "Scale without mass: business process replication and industry dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alvar Kangur, 2008. "What rules in the 'deep' determinants of comparative development?," Economics Series Working Papers 386, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yasser Abdih & Frederick Joutz, 2006. "Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gianni De Nicoló & Luc Laeven & Kenichi Ueda, 2007. "Corporate Governance Quality: Trends and Real Effects," IMF Working Papers 06/293, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nuno Barrau, Galo, 2008. "Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 9430, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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