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The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

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  • Weber, Sebastian
  • Döpke, Jörg

Abstract

We analyse stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch in a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,29.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4758

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Keywords: business cycles; firm growth; Markov chains;

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References

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  1. Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2005. "The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers, Hamburg University, Department of Economics 20508, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure) 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  3. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
  5. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P. & S. Platis, 2001. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 0114, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Joseph A. Schumpeter, 1951. "Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 149-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  9. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.
  2. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2324, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Bachmann, Ruediger & Bayer, Christian, 2009. "The cross-section of firms over the business cycle: new facts and a DSGE exploration," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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