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The within-distribution business cycle dynamics of German firms

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  • Weber, Sebastian
  • Döpke, Jörg

Abstract

We analyse stylised facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period, e.g. whether a firm that has witnessed a high growth rate is likely to stay in a regime of high growth or is bound to switch in a regime of low growth in the subsequent period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,29.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4758

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Keywords: business cycles; firm growth; Markov chains;

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References

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  1. Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
  3. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, 05.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
  6. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  7. Joseph A. Schumpeter, 1951. "Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 149-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," 2009 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Bachmann, Ruediger & Bayer, Christian, 2009. "The cross-section of firms over the business cycle: new facts and a DSGE exploration," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2324, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.

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