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The Within-Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics of German Firms

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Author Info
Sebastian Weber ()
Joerg Doepke ()

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Abstract

We analyse stylised facts for Germany’s business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank’s balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20609.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20609

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; firm growth; markov chains;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Funke & Sebastian Weber & Jörg Döpke & Sean Holly, 2005. "The Cross-Sectional Dynamics of German Business Cycles: A Bird´s Eye View," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20508, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc J, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Joseph A. Schumpeter, 1951. "Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 149-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kirman, Alan P, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-36, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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