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The Within-Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics of German Firms

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  • Sebastian Weber

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  • Joerg Doepke

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    Abstract

    We analyse stylised facts for Germany’s business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank’s balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55,000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a certain real sales growth regime switching to another regime in the next period. We find that these probabilities depend on the business cycle position.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20609.

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    Date of creation: Sep 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20609

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    Related research

    Keywords: business cycles; firm growth; markov chains;

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    References

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    1. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman & S. Platis, 2004. "The Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Shocks and the Cross-Section: The Growth of UK Quoted Companies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 299-318, 05.
    5. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
    6. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
    7. Fabio Ghironi & Marc Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," 2004 Meeting Papers 451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March.
    9. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
    10. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    11. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    12. Joseph A. Schumpeter, 1951. "Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Conference on Business Cycles, pages 149-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "The cross-sectional dynamics of the US business cycle: 1950-1999," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1539-1555, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian, 2013. "‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 704-719.

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