IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00854101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: Evidence from 11 Euro area countries

Author

Listed:
  • Raphaël Chiappini

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of the specialisation pattern of 11 Euro area countries by analysing their comparative and technological advantages over the period 1990-2008. Using the estimation of marginal densities and Markov transition probabilities, we examine both the external shape of the distribution of technological and comparative advantages and the intradistribution dynamics. Our results point out that there is, on average, a high persistence in industrial specialisation patterns of the 11 Euro area countries under scrutiny, confirming a lock-in effect, notably for Italy. Nevertheless, our results related to technological specialisation reveal a large mobility of technological advantages during the same period, especially in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaël Chiappini, 2013. "Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: Evidence from 11 Euro area countries," Working Papers hal-00854101, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00854101
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00854101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00854101/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiappini, Raphaël, 2011. "Comment mesurer la compétitivité structurelle des pays dans les équations d’exportation ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(1), pages 31-57, mars.
    2. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
    3. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for growth and distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2138, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Ethier, Wilfred, 1979. "Internationally decreasing costs and world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    6. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    7. Xiang, Chong, 2007. "Diversification cones, trade costs and factor market linkages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 448-466, April.
    8. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
    9. Chiappini, Raphaël, 2011. "Dynamique des specialisations et performances commerciales des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale," Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest, Editions NecPlus, vol. 42(02), pages 165-193, June.
    10. Luca De Benedictis & Massimo Tamberi, 2004. "Overall Specialization Empirics: Techniques and Applications," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-346, October.
    11. Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    12. Michele Alessandrini & Bassam Fattouh & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2007. "The changing pattern of foreign trade specialization in Indian manufacturing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 270-291, Summer.
    13. James R. Markusen & James R. Melvin, 1981. "Trade, Factor Prices, and the Gains from Trade with Increasing Returns to Scale," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 450-469, August.
    14. Narula, Rajneesh & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Technological competitiveness, trade and foreign direct investment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 373-387, September.
    15. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    16. Peter Hall & Jeff Racine & Qi Li, 2004. "Cross-Validation and the Estimation of Conditional Probability Densities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1015-1026, December.
    17. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.
    18. Deardorff, Alan V, 1974. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 829-833, July/Aug..
    19. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    20. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-243, May.
    21. Peter K. Schott, 2003. "One Size Fits All? Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization in Global Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 686-708, June.
    22. Michele Alessandrini & Michael Enowbi Batuo, 2010. "The trade specialization of SANE: Evidence from manufacturing industries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 145-178, June.
    23. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    24. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & José Maria, 2010. "What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(2), pages 77-95, August.
    25. Uchida, Yuichiro & Cook, Paul, 2005. "The Transformation of Competitive Advantage in East Asia: An Analysis of Technological and Trade Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 701-728, May.
    26. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    27. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
    28. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    29. Findlay, Ronald, 1970. "Factor Proportions and Comparative Advantage in the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 27-34, Jan.-Feb..
    30. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2012. "National Externalities and Path‐dependence in Technological Change: An Empirical Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(314), pages 329-349, April.
    31. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    32. Raphaël Chiappini, 2010. "Dynamique des spécialisations et performances commerciales des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO)," Working Papers hal-00637591, HAL.
    33. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
    34. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    36. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    37. Rémi LALLEMENT & El Mouhoub MOUHOUD & Sandrine PAILLARD, 2002. "Polarisation Et Internationalisation Des Activites D'Innovation : Incidences Sur La Specialisation Technologique Des Nations," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 16, pages 17-54.
    38. Hayfield, Tristen & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i05).
    39. James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    40. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    42. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1984. "Tobit models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 3-61.
    43. Imre Ferto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23.
    44. Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-1171, September.
    45. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
    46. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    47. Danny Quah, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution," CEP Discussion Papers dp0324, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    48. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    49. Bent Dalum & Keld Laursen & Gert Villumsen, 1998. "Structural Change in OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: de-specialisation and 'stickiness'," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 423-443.
    50. Quah, Danny T, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
    51. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Arena, 2013. "Sraffa's and Wittgenstein's Crossed Influences: Forms of Life and Snapshots," GREDEG Working Papers 2013-06, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. Eleni Laitsou & Antonios Kargas & Dimitris Varoutas, 2020. "Digital Competitiveness in the European Union Era: The Greek Case," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-33, October.
    3. Stéphane Bécuwe & Bertrand Blancheton, 2020. "French textile specialisation in long run perspective (1836–1938): trade policy as industrial policy," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(6), pages 891-914, August.
    4. Pavel Zdražil & Ivana Kraftová, 2022. "The Determinants of Competitive Advantage for Europe’s Regions: Digital Economy at the Start of the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 450-471, May.
    5. Cristiano Antonelli & Francesco Quatraro, 2014. "The effects of biased technological changes on total factor productivity: a rejoinder and new empirical evidence," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 281-299, April.
    6. Giorgio Calcagnini & Germana Giombini & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2015. "The productivity gap among European countries," Working Papers 1510, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2015.
    7. Kevin D. Hoover, 2014. "Man and machine in macroeconomics," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 67, pages 15-34.
    8. Charis Vlados & Nikolaos Deniozos & Demosthenes Chatzinikolaou & Michail Demertzis, 2018. "Perceiving Competitiveness under the Restructuring Process of Globalization," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(8), pages 135-135, June.
    9. Weresa Marzenna Anna, 2019. "Technological competitiveness of the EU member states in the era of the fourth industrial revolution," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(3), pages 50-71, September.
    10. MEISSNER Christopher & BECUWE Stéphane & BLANCHETON Bertrand, 2015. "France’s international insertion strategy in globalization in long run perspective 1836-1938," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-18, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    11. Irina Marilena Ban, 2017. "Measuring trade specialization dynamics: the case of Romania and Bulgaria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 229-248, May.
    12. Kardung, Maximilian & Drabik, Dušan, 2021. "Full speed ahead or floating around? Dynamics of selected circular bioeconomies in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    13. Stéphane Becuwe & Bertrand Blancheton & Christopher M Meissner, 2018. "Stages of diversification: France, 1836–1938," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(4), pages 430-461.
    14. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    15. Richa Khurana & D. K. Nauriyal, 2017. "Dynamics of Services Exports in India," Millennial Asia, , vol. 8(2), pages 178-193, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    2. Irina Marilena Ban, 2017. "Measuring trade specialization dynamics: the case of Romania and Bulgaria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 229-248, May.
    3. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    4. Fertő, Imre & Hubbard, Lionel J., 2005. "Az agrárkereskedelem dinamikája - A csatlakozó országok esete [The dynamics of agri-food trade patterns - the accession countries case]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-38.
    5. Cristiano Antonelli & Francesco Quatraro, 2014. "The effects of biased technological changes on total factor productivity: a rejoinder and new empirical evidence," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 281-299, April.
    6. João Amador & José R. Maria & Sónia Cabral, 2007. "International Trade Patterns over the Last Four Decades: How does Portugal Compare with other Cohesion Countries?," Working Papers w200714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & José Maria, 2010. "What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(2), pages 77-95, August.
    8. Imre Ferto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23.
    9. Silvia Dal Bianco, 2016. "Going clubbing in the eighties: convergence in manufacturing sectors at a glance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 623-659, March.
    10. Viet V. Hoang, 2019. "Investigating the evolution of agricultural trade specialization in transition economies: A case study from Vietnam," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 361-378, July.
    11. Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2008. "European Enlargement and Agro‐Food Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(4), pages 563-579, December.
    12. Hisanaga, Makoto, 2015. "Dynamics of the Comparative Advantage Structure and their Differences between Goods and Services," Discussion paper series. A 284, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    13. Maria Luisa Mancusi, 2003. "Geographical concentration and the dynamics of countries' specialization in technologies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 269-291.
    14. Iván Arribas & Francisco Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "The dynamics of international trade integration: 1967–2004," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 19-41, February.
    15. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & José Maria, 2011. "A Simple Cross-Country Index of Trade Specialization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 447-461, July.
    16. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.
    17. Bojnec, Štefan & Fertő, Imre, 2014. "Forestry industry trade by degree of wood processing in the enlarged European Union countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-39.
    18. Beňo, Michal, 2021. "E-working: Country Versus Culture Dimension," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    19. Sulekha Hembram & Souparna Maji & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Club Convergence among the Major Indian States During 1982–2014: Does Investment in Human Capital Matter?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 20(2), pages 184-204, September.
    20. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Beta, sigma and club convergence: Indian experience from 1980 to 2015," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-366, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Specialisation dynamics; Revealed comparative advantage; Technological comparative advantage; Transition probability; Intra distribution dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00854101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.