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Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm Volatility

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Author Info
Diego Comin
Sunil Mulani

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Abstract

This note documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm levels. We establish that the upward trend in firm volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied.We argue that this new fact brings into question the proposed explanations for the decline in aggregate volatility and that, given the symmetry of the diverging trends at the micro and macro levels, a common explanation is likely. We conclude by describing one such theory. Copyright Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/rest.88.2.374
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 374-383
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:88:y:2006:i:2:p:374-383

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  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2008. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 14300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Comin, D. & Mulani, S., 2003. "Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility: Facts," Working Papers 03-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  6. Demir, Firat, 2008. "Financial Liberalization, Private Investment and Portfolio Choice: Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 3835, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  9. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Kerstin Stahn, 2008. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Che, Natasha Xingyuan, 2009. "The great dissolution: organization capital and diverging volatility puzzle," MPRA Paper 13701, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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