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Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?

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Author Info
Christopher Kent (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Kylie Smith (Reserve Bank of Australia)
James Holloway (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

The decline in output volatility in a number of countries over the past few decades has been well-documented, though less agreement has been reached about the causes of this decline. In this paper, we use a panel of data from 20 OECD countries to see if there is a role for various indicators of structural reform in explaining the general decline in output volatility. We suggest that reforms in product and labour markets can reduce volatility of aggregate output by encouraging productive resources to shift more readily in response to differential shocks across firms and sectors. In contrast to other studies, we include direct measures of product market regulations and monetary policy regimes as indicators of structural reform. We find that less product market regulation and stricter monetary policy regimes have played a role in reducing output volatility. Our estimates are reasonably robust to a number of alternative specifications, including those that attempt to control for a possible trend in common (unexplained) innovations to output volatility such as a possible decline in the magnitude of global shocks.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2005-08.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2005-08

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Related research
Keywords: business cycles; volatility; panel regression; structural reform; monetary policy; OECD;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leonidas Spiliopoulos, 2005. "What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study," Macroeconomics 0505026, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cristina Betancour & Jose De Gregorio & Juan Pablo Medina, 2006. "The “Great Moderation” and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 393, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. José De Gregorio, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Risk of Inflation: A View From Developing Countries," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stefan Krause & Felix Rioja, 2006. "Financial Development and Monetary Policy Efficiency," Emory Economics 0613, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  7. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2007. "Current Account Deficits: The Australian Debate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 450, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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